Both once the CBOE future expired now, when the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there was clearly a considerable reduction in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a serious low volume i would estimate that they’re dominated by one single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is probably short the near future and maybe long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit in the event the price is low this will let you border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an incredibly bad settlement processes which might be all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price for Gemini – a young with a small volume more often than not.
CME’s model is much better, but nevertheless of low quality, VWAP about the four major exchanges is a great idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on a real brief period is incredibly limited. Even when many large participants would have interests in almost any of these settlement processes they’d more than likely have a similar position and advantages from exactly the same side in the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over a long time instead). In conclusion is the fact that we likely will discover a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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