Both if the CBOE future expired and today, in the event the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there was clearly a substantial decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a serious low volume and i also would reckon that they may be covered with a single liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is most likely short the future and possibly long the location. At expiry, they’ll profit if your price is low and also have a border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes which might be all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE oahu is the auction price for Gemini – a young which has a really small volume most of the time.
CME’s model is much better, but still lower, VWAP around the four major exchanges may be beneficial, but when that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on this type of brief time period is quite limited. Even when many large participants might have interests in almost any of such settlement processes they’d most likely have similar position and advantages from the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over many hours instead). The conclusion is the fact that we likely will see a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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