Both once the CBOE future expired and from now on, when the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there was clearly an amazing reduction in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and that i would guess that they’re dominated by one liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is most probably short the long run and perhaps long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if your prices are low and also have a border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which are an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price for Gemini – a tender with a very small volume usually.
CME’s model is way better, but nevertheless of low quality, VWAP on the four major exchanges may be beneficial, however, if that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the amount on a real brief span of time is quite limited. Even when many large participants could have interests in a of such settlement processes they’d more than likely have a similar position and advantages from precisely the same side in the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over hrs instead). Concluding is we likely will discover a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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