Both once the CBOE future expired now, if the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there was clearly a substantial loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume i would reckon that they may be dominated by one single liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is probably short the longer term and perchance long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit in the event the price is low this will let you border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes which might be easy to manipulate. For CBOE oahu is the auction price for Gemini – a tender with a tiny volume generally.
CME’s model is best, however lower, VWAP about the four major exchanges is a good idea, however, if that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on this kind of brief time span is very limited. Even though many large participants could have interests in any of these settlement processes they’d probably have similar position and advantages of exactly the same side from the market manipulation. The VWAP should have been calculated over a long time instead). The final outcome is the fact that we likely will discover a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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