A sustained move under $53.61 will signal a good sellers indicating a bull trap. This will likely trigger a labored break with potential targets weighing $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support then look for the selling to extend in to the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.
A sustained make room $54.00 will indicate the use of buyers. This will likely also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and merely buy stops. The upside momentum won’t continue and testing $54.98 is really a pipe dream for buyers from fuelled trade talks.
Lifting Iranian sanctions may significant effect on the entire world oil market. Iran’s oil reserves would be the fourth largest in the world and the’ve a production capacity around 4 million barrels each day, which makes them the second largest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves be the cause of approximately 10% from the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, at the rate with the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. Probably Iran will add about One million barrels of oil each day for the market and based on the world bank this can resulted in the lowering of the crude oil price by $10 per barrel pick up.
Based on Data from OPEC, at the beginning of 2013 the biggest oil deposits are in Venezuela being 20% of worldwide oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Due to characteristics from the reserves it is not always very easy to bring this oil for the surface given the limitation on extraction technologies as well as the cost to extract.
As China’s increased need for gas main as an alternative to fossil fuel further reduces overall interest in oil, the increase in supply from Iran along with the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil on top of the market should begin to see the price drop in the next Twelve months and several analysts are predicting prices will fall under the $30’s.
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