Both once the CBOE future expired now, when the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there was a considerable decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a good low volume and i also would estimate that they are dominated by one single liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is most probably short the longer term and perchance long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit in the event the cost is low this will let you border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which can be an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a young having a small volume most of the time.
CME’s model is best, however not as good, VWAP on the four major exchanges is a great idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the amount on such a brief span of time is incredibly limited. Regardless if many large participants could have interests in almost any of such settlement processes they’d almost certainly have similar position and advantages from exactly the same side from the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is that we likely will see a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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