Bank of Baroda (532134.IN) shares have fallen 17% during the last 60 days as investors fretted on the Indian lender’s soured loans. Nomura sees the dip as a good buying opportunity and contains upgraded the second largest government-controlled bank from neutral to get.
One good reason analyst Adarsh Parasrampuria likes this stock could be that the outlook for its pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) is superior to its rivals, thanks to expected improvements in the net interest margins. Nomura forecasts PPOP to develop within an average rate of roughly 13% between 2017-19.
Parasrampuria also likes the bobibanking provisioning as India’s central bank cracks down non-performing assets (NPA).
RBI’s recent directive to increase the provisioning for 12 large NPA cases led to uncertainty over near-term P&L provisioning, but BOB’s NPA coverage at 58% may be the highest of the corporate banks and offers comfort, as we see it. Rating agency CRISIL recently indicated a 60% haircut because of these 12 large accounts, which has similarities to your 60% haircut assumption used to reach our adjusted book.
However, the analyst is worried about M&A risks given government moves to consolidate smaller public sector banks (PSU):
M&A risks have gone up, using the finance ministry indicating a possible merger of small PSU banks with larger ones. The world thinks BOB’s valuation at 1.0x FY17F book vs. 0.5-0.6x FY17F book for smaller PSUs factors in M&A-related provisioning risks.
Parasrampuria features a INR200 a share target price on Bank of Baroda, meaning 26% upside. The state-owned lender trades at 10 x forward earnings and pays a modest 0.8% dividend yield.
Bank of Baroda (BoB) features a very good provision coverage ratio in comparison to other public sector undertaking (PSU) banks. Their tier-I capital ratio is also significantly higher. Some others are consolidating their balance sheet, BoB is speaking about loan growth
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