Both if the CBOE future expired and after this, once the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there was clearly an important reduction in the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite a low volume i would guess that they’re dominated by one single liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is usually short the longer term and perchance long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit if the prices are low this will let you border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes that are all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE it’s the auction price for Gemini – a tender using a very small volume more often than not.
CME’s model is way better, but nevertheless not very good, VWAP about the four major exchanges may be beneficial, however, if that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on this kind of brief time span is very limited. Even though many large participants might have interests in a of these settlement processes they’d probably have the same position and benefits from the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is we likely will discover a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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