This is focused on those of you which put money into individual stocks. I want to share with you the strategy Personally i have tried over time to select stocks which i are finding to get consistently profitable in actual trading. I like to work with a combination of fundamental and technical analysis for selecting stocks. My experience shows that successful stock selection involves two steps:
1. Select a share while using the fundamental analysis presented then
2. Confirm how the stock is an uptrend as shown by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average Line (EMA) being higher than the 100-Day EMA
This two-step process boosts the odds how the stock you choose will likely be profitable. It even offers an indication to trade stock that has not performed as expected if it’s 50-Day EMA drops below its 100-Day EMA. It is another useful way for selecting stocks for covered call writing, quantity strategy.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis may be the study of economic data such as earnings, dividends and money flow, which influence the pricing of securities. I use fundamental analysis to aid select securities for future price appreciation. Over the years Personally i have tried many options for measuring a company’s growth rate so that they can predict its stock’s future price performance. I purchased methods such as earnings growth and return on equity. I are finding that these methods aren’t always reliable or predictive.
Earning Growth
For instance, corporate net profits are susceptible to vague bookkeeping practices such as depreciation, cashflow, inventory adjustment and reserves. These are all susceptible to interpretation by accountants. Today inside your, corporations they are under increasing pressure to overpower analyst’s earnings estimates which ends up in more aggressive accounting interpretations. Some corporations take special “one time” write-offs on their balance sheet for things like failed mergers or acquisitions, restructuring, unprofitable divisions, failed developing the site, etc. Many times these write-offs aren’t reflected as a drag on earnings growth but instead appear as a footnote on the financial report. These “one time” write-offs occur with an increase of frequency than you might expect. Many firms that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average took such write-offs.
Return on Equity
Another popular indicator, which I have found is just not necessarily predictive of stock price appreciation, is return on equity (ROE). Conventional wisdom correlates a higher return on equity with successful corporate management that is certainly maximizing shareholder value (the higher the ROE the greater).
Recognise the business is a bit more successful?
Coca-Cola (KO) with a Return on Equity of 46% or
Merrill Lynch (MER) with a Return on Equity of 18%
The solution is Merrill Lynch by any measure. But Coca-Cola has a greater ROE. How are these claims possible?
Return on equity is calculated by dividing a company’s post tax profit by stockholder’s equity. Coca-Cola can be so over valued that its stockholder’s equity is just add up to about 5% in the total market value in the company. The stockholder equity can be so small that almost any amount of post tax profit will make a favorable ROE.
Merrill Lynch however, has stockholder’s equity add up to 42% in the market value in the company as well as a much higher post tax profit figure to generate a comparable ROE. My point is always that ROE will not compare apples to apples then is very little good relative indicator in comparing company performance.
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